The decision of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to go to Rajya Sabha heralds the end of the ‘Nitish era’ in Bihar politics. It is also a precursor of emergence of a new political equation that will shape the politics of Bihar in days to come. The immediate beneficiary, of course, is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has been craving to form its own government in Bihar.

If everything goes well according to its strategy, the BJP will have its chief minister for the first time in Bihar. Though the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 89 legislators in the state assembly, it had conceded the post of the chief minister to Nitish Kumar – under whose leadership the NDA had fought the 2025 assembly elections.

It was imperative since the Janata Dal (U) too had garnered 85 assembly seats thus becoming the second largest party closer to the BJP tally. But the BJP strategy to have its own chief minister was apparent as, like the previous elections, the BJP had not declared before the 2025 state polls that Nitish Kumar would be the chief minister if NDA comes to power.

After the government formation, the BJP loyalists in the JDU like party working president Sanjay Jha, union minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh aka Lallan Singh and a couple of others in the state council of ministers were working on the exit plan of Nitish Kumar. The Rajya Sabha biennial polls came as an opportune time to implement the plan which entails Rajya Sabha nomination to Nitish Kumar and the post of the Deputy Chief Minister to his son Nishant Kumar under a BJP chief minister. Nishant was formally launched in politics on Thursday thus sullying the ‘anti-pariwarwad’ image of Nitish Kumar. The Deputy Chief Minister’s post for his son seems to be a concession extracted due to his position of diminished leverage.

Barring a brief interregnum of over nine months, Nitish has been ruling Bihar with élan since November 2005. He earned a sobriquet of an ‘able administrator and a visionary’ by virtue of his resolute decisions on improving the law and order situation and ushering in the process of development within the limited financial resources he had inherited from the erstwhile Lalu-Rabri regime.

The wily politician, that he is, Nitish also made independent Machiavellian political moves to keep his main ally - the BJP - at a safe distance maintaining his secular credentials while keeping his vote bank among the non-Yadav backward castes, extremely backward castes (EBCs), Dalits and Pasmanda (Backward) Muslims intact.

But due to his failing health after early 2023, his grip over the state administration started weakening and it seems to have slipped into the hands of a coterie of bureaucrats. His political decisions also appear to have been influenced by a caucus of the JDU leaders seemingly loyal to the apex BJP leadership.

Consequently, after the 2025 assembly elections wherein the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 assembly seats, the command of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) changed hands. Now, the ‘big brother’ Nitish Kumar doesn’t wield the wand anymore. Instead, it is the central BJP leadership that now calls the shots in matters pertaining to the NDA.

The first sign of the BJP dominance over the JDU was apparent when the crucial Home Department was snatched from the Chief Minister’s quiver and handed over to the Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary. The change is historical as barring Ramanand Tiwary, who was made minister of state for home affairs during the Karpoori Thakur regime, the home department portfolio has always remained with the Chief Minister.

For nearly two decades, Nitish had held the home department and used it as his tool to control the administrative and law and order machinery and also build his image as ‘Sushasan Babu’ of Bihar. Nitish had retained the home department even in 2020 when the JDU had won only 43 assembly seats.

It is also an indicator of the structural shift in the social base of the ruling clique. While as chief minister Nitish Kumar holds control over General Administration, Cabinet Secretariat and Vigilance, the authoritative law and order machinery - the state police, paramilitary forces and the investigating agencies - is now controlled by Samrat Choudhary, who is a Kushwaha (Koeri) - the third dominant caste among the triad of Yadavas, Kurmis and Kushwahas.

Since 1990, the Yadavs under Lalu Prasad ruled Bihar for 15 years followed by 20-year rule of Kurmis under Nitish Kumar. The Koeris, only second in terms of numerical strength among the backward castes, have got an opportunity now under the leadership of Samrat Choudhary. Though the de jure head of the Bihar government still is Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister, the de facto head is Samrat Choudhary as the home minister.

This move is indeed the promise fulfilled by the BJP leadership. During the state poll campaign, union home minister Amit Shah had promised to give Samrat an ‘important role’ in governance if voted to power.

With Samrat at the helm of affairs in Bihar, the political game-plan of the BJP apparently is to rope in the numerically preponderant Kushwaha vote bank into the party fold and spin the state’s politics in a bid to grab power in Bihar with the help of the JDU caucus loyal to it. But it runs the risk of alienating Upendra Kushwaha, whose Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) is part of the ruling NDA in Bihar with five MLAs.

In fact, a feeling whether Nitish Kumar is turning into a liability for the BJP gained ground during the campaigns for the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 assembly elections in Bihar. It emanated from his unpredictable conducts, gaffes and incoherent speeches at the election rallies.

There is no official version about his failing health but the missing sharpness of his speeches, bloomers and forgetfulness suggest that Nitish, who turned 75 five days ago, does not enjoy the optimal ‘mental health’ anymore. The BJP leaders have been alleging that he has reached a stage where he faces the possibility of becoming the target of scorn and cynicism.

Called as ‘Chanakya’ for his political acumen, Nitish has been winning the elections through his deft political moves blending his carefully crafted secular image with pragmatic politics. His unassuming persona and a dignified aura around him have always singled him out among the political personalities of Bihar.

He had taken a myriad of steps to rid Bihar out of the state of callousness and financial stress. His social schemes for uplift of women by giving 35percent reservation in government jobs, uniform and cycle to girls at school level and free education to girls has earned him accolades. He assiduously created a force of Jeevika Didis, who turned out to be a potent force in social change. He also enhanced the budget to a staggering Rs 3.5 lakh crore from the meager Rs 25000 crore in 2005 with focus on infrastructure like roads, highways and bridges besides maintaining nearly 24-hour power supply across the state.

A strong votary of regional parties committed to certain principles, Nitish had taken head on the then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi when he was projected as the prime ministerial candidate. Due to Nitish Kumar’s aversion, Narendra Modi had not campaigned for the BJP or NDA in any election after the Godhra riots of 2002 and before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

As Nitish has been consistently trying to woo the Muslims, he had strongly opposed Modi’s visit to Bihar during the 2005 state assembly elections, 2009 Lok Sabha elections and 2010 state assembly elections. He had categorically told the BJP leadership that campaigning by Modi in Bihar might cast a ‘negative impact’ on the electorate due to his hard-line Hindutva.

Nitish also nourished Prime Ministerial ambitions and he considered him to be superior to Modi. In 2010, he took strong exception to his photograph with Modi on an advertisement in which he was shown holding Modi’s hand aloft. This iconic photograph, taken in Ludhiana at a rally in 2009, appeared in the advertisements in Bihar dailies with Nitish Kumar thanking Modi for Rs 5 crore flood-relief aid. The occasion was the national executive meeting of the BJP in Patna. An infuriated Nitish cancelled the dinner scheduled for the BJP leaders and returned the aid amount forthwith.

With the change in guard, the politics in Bihar is bound to change and chances of a political upheaval and formation of new social combinations are palpable as the hitherto Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Koeri) and EBC equation may be altered due to the high political ambitions of their leaders. The JDU may undergo a change in the absence of Nitish Kumar and the new leadership may abandon the hackneyed political path and go for new realignment.

It may throw up the emergence of new political leadership cutting across party lines as was visible during the churning years of 1989-1990. But one thing is apparent that the ‘Kurmi Sultanate’ nourished by Nitish Kumar since November 2005 has fallen.