Accession of Lalu Prasad Yadav on the Bihar throne on March 10, 1990 had heralded the end of the Congress rule and beginning of the coalition era with the regional satraps and political outfits taking over the reins of Bihar.

After little over 36 years, a coalition government has come to power again but with a difference as a national level political party - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - has succeeded in installing Samrat Choudhary as its own chief minister following resignation of Nitish Kumar on April 14.

Though the 85-MLA strong Janata Dal (U) headed by former Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is the main ally and holds the key to the government, it will play second fiddle to the BJP in future politics in Bihar. Earlier, the Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar used to be the senior coalition partner - Bade Bhai - of the five-party National democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar holding the post of the chief minister as well as key departments like Home and a major share in seats during the state assembly and the Lok Sabha elections.

It is for the first time that the BJP has snailed its way to power from the opposition benches to the position of second coalition partner (Chhote Bhai) during the rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar to installing its own chief minister in Bihar.

“It is a dream come true for the BJP to have its own chief minister for the first time in Bihar. It is a historical moment for all of us. It was long-awaited,” said former MLA Haribhushan Thakur Bachoul.

Bihar had witnessed coalition governments in the past as in 1967 and 1977 but both the governments fell due to administrative and leadership failures, their own inner contradictions and ambitious attitude of the power-hungry leaders paving the way for the installation of the Congress governments again. In fact, the leaders or their political outfits lacked a consolidated and substantial vote bank that could rally behind.

Not surprisingly then, when Lalu Perasad Yadav became the chief minister in 1990, the opponents and the people alike thought that the government would fall again due to internal bickerings and contradictions. But Lalu Prasad Yadav survived and ruled for 15 years as he along with Nitish Kumar consolidated the social justice vote bank comprising the backward castes, extremely backward castes (EBCs), Dalits and Muslims.

It was because of the consolidated vote bank that Lalu Prasad Yadav won the successive elections till 2000. But he had kept the BJP at a safe distance and even split the saffron outfit twice by including the backward caste legislators of the saffron outfit to his side. He had stopped the Rath Yatra and arrested top BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani at Samastipur in October 1990 leading to the fall of the then V P Singh government.

Again, when Nitish sliced the social justice vote bank by taking to his side the non-Yadav backward caste votes, EBCs, backwards among the Muslims and part of Dalits, his combination turned formidable and impregnable with the support of the Upper Castes who had supported Nitish via the BJP. So, Nitish too continued to rule for over 20 years before putting his papers on April 14.

But both the regional satraps –Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar - provided stability to their respective governments keeping at bay the national parties like the Congress and the BJP as their secondary allies. Therefore, Bihar’s contemporary political history has been marked by the dominance of the regional parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (U), Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and other splinter outfits.

The BJP, earlier known as Jansangh, has been participating in electoral politics but it had never been a force to reckon with among the electorate. It had played a second fiddle to the non-Congress political outfits especially the Socialists of all hues and even on the Leftists to thrive and survive in politics.

The BJP thrived in south Bihar districts – now Jharkhand – before bifurcation of Bihar in 2000. At present, it has a substantial presence in north-western districts of Bihar. While the upper castes comprising little over 10 percent votes and Vaishyas are its core voters, it has reaped electoral benefits due mainly to the substantial vote bank of Nitish Kumar comprising the Kurmis, Koeris (Kushwaha), EBCs including the Dhanuks and Mallah, backward Muslims called Pasmandas and part of the Dalits.

The Kurmis and Kushwahas – called as Luv-Kush combine – form the fulcrum of Nitish Kumar’s vote bank around which the other castes revolve. The Samrat Choudhary government will have to face a major challenge of keeping the social justice vote bank intact. As Samrat inherits this vote bank from Nitish Kumar, he will have to maintain a cordial relationship with the new JD(U) team headed by Nishant Kumar as well as the other socialist-strain outfits like LJP of Chirag Paswan, RLM of Upendra Kushwaha and HAM of Jitan Ram Manjhi.

It seems that the BJP has preferred Samrat Choudhary as its nominee for the post of the chief minister keeping in view his political umbilical cord attached to the regional parties. Samrat began his career from the RJD and became the minister in the Rabri Devi government. He traversed his way to the JD(U) and became a minister in the Nitish Kumar government before joining the BJP in 2018.It appears to be a pre-condition laid down by the JD(U) leadership for a smooth power transition.

Bihar being a caste-ridden society with less number of upper castes and dominance of backwards and Dalits, the BJP will have to develop its leadership from among the marginalised sections to survive as the Hindutva card will not fetch the desired electoral gain.

In the absence of towering personalities like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan, the vacuum of leadership has the potential of disintegrating the vote bank. Moreover, the fear of jungle raj will not be a vote-catching slogan anymore because the new government will have to show the guts in handling the law and order situation the way Nitish did after coming to power in November 2005.