Production rise in nonâ€'Gulf areas unlikely to offset oil disruption from Iran war
- Posted: March 01, 2026
- Updated: 12:37 pm
Mumbai, March 1 : Missiles fired between Iran and Israel-US joint forces across the Gulf pose one of the most serious disruptions to oil flows in decades and may not be offset by production increases outside the Gulf, analysts said on Sunday.
Traders warned that prices could jump sharply when markets reopen on Monday if the violence continues. Though no confirmed disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of tankers being stranded or targeted has prompted major oil traders to suspend shipments through the strait.
The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handles nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products.
Tanker freight rates have already risen, with benchmark rates for very large crude carriers from the Middle East to China having tripled in 2026 YTD, indicating that vessels are shrinking away from taking risks.
The Middle East supplies about 20 per cent of the worldâ??s oil, and the scale of disruption will depend on if energy infrastructure will be directly targeted and how quickly normal service on shipping routes resumes, they said.
So far, war conflict between Iran and Israel-US joint forces have not led to any confirmed hits to major oil and gas infrastructure, though explosions were reported in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait and blasts were heard near Iranâ??s Kharg Island, the terminal that handles most of Tehranâ??s crude exports, according to multiple reports.
Analysts noted that even shortâ??term conflicts have outsized effects on prices and supply, citing past incidents in the Gulf during the 1980s Iranâ??Iraq war.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a new wave of attacks targeting US and Israeli military installations across the Middle East, to avenge the recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
â??This great crime will never remain unanswered and will turn a new page in the history of the Islamic world,â?? an official statement from Iranâ??s government said.
/IANS
